Did you see the Rams flounder at home on Sunday in a 38-28 loss to the Cardinals? The game went over total, which isn’t a surprise since the Rams have the fourth-worst defense in the NFL. The Rams have a high-octane offense with plenty of weapons in the running and passing game, but the defense has been poor the past two years under coordinator Larry Marmie, who replaced the popular Lovie Smith. It’s obvious that Marmie doesn’t have Smith’s defensive talents. 70% of the Rams’ games have gone over total this season (7-3). It’s those kinds of team strengths and weaknesses (bad defense, good offense) that tipsters look for when looking at the totals. The Rams are also 4-1 on aggregate at home on their slippery artificial carpet.
Speaking of Lovie Smith, he has since become the head coach of the Chicago Bears. He has a wealth of defensive talent and limited offensive options along with a rookie quarterback. Not surprisingly, Smith prefers to win games with his defense and play conservative offense with a rookie QB. The Bears are 8-2 under total this season. Do you think it’s just a trend? Smith ran the same formula a year ago when Chicago went 10-6 under overall, which means they’re 18-8 under since he became Bears coach.
Handicap totals have to do with line value, but also the styles a football team plays. Another factor to keep in mind as we head into the final stretch of the NFL season is the weather. Northern cities like Chicago, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh are getting colder this time of year. It is essential to check the weather conditions on match day. Cold weather is harder on violations, as are wind chills and snow, which is also something that will become more common.
The Colts’ improved defense was one of the big surprises of the NFL season. But keep in mind that they haven’t been that strong lately, giving up 20+ points in 4 of the last 5 games. The Bengals caught them for close to 500 yards on Sunday. After starting the season 5-0 under total, the Colts’ offense has begun to click, while the defense has begun to flex more and Indy is 5-0 over total over the last five games. The Bengals/Colts shootout on Sunday surpassed the total in the first half!
You could also classify the Cleveland Browns in the Chicago Bears category: plodding offense, tough defense. Head coach Romeo Crennel is a great defensive mind, having won three of the last four Super Bowls as the Patriots’ defensive coordinator. The Browns improved defensively under him, going 8-2 under total. And the Patriots miss Crennel. Coupled with his absence and numerous injuries in the secondary, the Patriots are 6-3 overall, with a good passing game but a suddenly poor secondary.
Injuries can also significantly change a team. The NY Jets have an incredibly anemic offense rotating four QBs this season. The Jets are 4-2 under on the road total, where the offense is averaging just 7 points per game! The Steelers are eager for Ben Roethlisberger to bounce back and realize Pittsburgh is 5-0 under road total with a tough defense and conservative offense without Big Ben. Stats, styles, training, and weather all contribute to overs and unders.
